Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning

E. Muths (1) , T. Chambert (2, 3) , B. R. Schmidt (4, 5) , A. Miller (2) , B. R. Hossack (3) , Pierre Joly (6) , Odile Grolet (6) , M. Green (7) , D. S. Pilliod (8) , M. Cheylan (9, 10) , R. N. Fisher (11) , R. M. Mccaffery (12, 13) , J. Adams (3) , J. Palen (14) , J. Arntzen (15) , J. Garwood (16) , G. Fellers (17) , J.-M. Thirion (18) , A. Besnard (10) , E. H. Campbell Grant (19)

1 US Geological Survey [Fort Collins]
2 Penn State - Pennsylvania State University
3 USGS - United States Geological Survey
4 Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental studies
5 Info Fauna Karch 2000
6 LEHNA - Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés
7 Redpath Museum
8 FRESC - Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
9 CNRS, PSL Research University, EPHE
10 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
11 U.S. Geological Survey,
12 Division of Biological Sciences [Missoula]
13 U.S. Geological Survey
14 Department of Biological Sciences [Burnaby]
15 Naturalis Biodiversity Center [Leiden]
16 California Department of Fish and Wildlife
17 U.S. Geological Suvey
18 OBIOS - Association Objectifs Biodiversités
19 U.S. Geological Survey

The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and population-specific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation ‘rules of thumb’ for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges.

Domains: Environmental Sciences; Biodiversity and Ecology

E. Muths, T. Chambert, B. R. Schmidt, A. Miller, B. R. Hossack, et al.. Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7 (17102), pp.1-10. ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-17105-7⟩. ⟨hal-01658246⟩