Downscaling scenarios of future land use and land cover changes using a participatory approach: an application to mountain risk assessment in the Pyrenees (France)

Thomas Houet 1 Marine Gremont 2 Laure Vacquié 3 Yann Forget 3 Apolline Marriotti 2 Anne Puissant 4 Séverine Bernardie 2 Yannick Thiery 5 Rosalie Vandromme 2 Gilles Grandjean 2
1 LETG - Brest - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique
UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie, UA - Université d'Angers, UN - Université de Nantes, UBO - Université de Brest, UR2 - Université de Rennes 2, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR6554
5 LETG - Caen - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique
LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique
Abstract : Better understanding the pathways through which future socioeconomic changes might influence land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) is a crucial step in accurately assessing the resilience of societies to mountain hazards. Participatory foresight involving local stakeholders may help building fine-scale LULCC scenarios that are consistent with the likely evolution of mountain communities. This paper develops a methodology that combines participatory approaches in downscaling socioeconomic scenarios with LULCC modelling to assess future changes in mountain hazards, applied to a case study located in the French Pyrenees. Four spatially explicit local scenarios are built each including a narrative, two future land cover maps up to 2040 and 2100, and a set of quantified LULCC. Scenarios are then used to identify areas likely to encounter land cover changes (deforestation, reforestation, and encroachment) prone to affect gravitational hazards. In order to demonstrate their interest for decision-making, future land cover maps are used as input to a landslide hazard assessment model. Results highlight that reforestation will continue to be a major trend in all scenarios and confirm that the approach improves the accuracy of landslide hazard computations. This validates the interest of developing fine-scale LULCC models that account for the local knowledge of stakeholders.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Regional Environnemental Change, Springer, 2017, 17 (8), pp.2293-2307. 〈10.1007/s10113-017-1171-z〉
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [14 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01631770
Contributeur : Marine Gremont <>
Soumis le : jeudi 9 novembre 2017 - 16:37:45
Dernière modification le : vendredi 10 novembre 2017 - 10:17:45

Fichiers

REEC_Houet_Gremont_VF.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

Citation

Thomas Houet, Marine Gremont, Laure Vacquié, Yann Forget, Apolline Marriotti, et al.. Downscaling scenarios of future land use and land cover changes using a participatory approach: an application to mountain risk assessment in the Pyrenees (France) . Regional Environnemental Change, Springer, 2017, 17 (8), pp.2293-2307. 〈10.1007/s10113-017-1171-z〉. 〈hal-01631770〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

92

Téléchargements de fichiers

12